@Kellerpass Das als Kommentar auf diesen Thread ist ihr bias, sorry. Ich mit meinem bias hätte rausgelesen: Sorge vor Mutationen, kein Kind geht in Schulen bevor nicht 1. Maßnahmen installiert und die Fälle runter sind. 2. die Spreaderhäufigkeit bei Kindern erforscht ist #B117#Mutationen
Yeah that's what I've been saying. It's here, under the surface mostly so far. This is a race: people's attention to a new focus on public health measures like masks, ventilation, etc.. v.s. #B117. Do your part, the light is at the end of the tunnel.
https://t.co/h5w9s1Ayhi
"We don’t get through a pandemic because you have 50 states and the District of Columbia trying to outcompete each other," @ashishkjha says on the vaccine rollout. "To me this is not a strategy. It’s what happens when you have a failed federal government." https://t.co/E5invpK4w7
Great thread on the evolving calculus of #COVID19 risk by @Bob_Wachter. Discusses the positive and negative contributions of #vaccines and of more communicable #SARSCoV2 variants, including #B117, too. A key truth is that risk comes down to a shifting probability function. https://t.co/FOMSoQPvnv
1/ Covid Chronicles, Day 307
One of the most challenging parts of Covid has been grappling with decision-making under uncertainty. It’s natural for MDs to weigh risks & benefits; med school trained us in probabilistic decision-making. But it’s an unnatural act for most people.
Local municipalities such as Burlington, VT starting to test wastewater specifically for more infectious #B117 coronavirus variant in order to give advance warning surveillance. https://t.co/WyyoXQaYL8
So erschreckend zu sehen, wie schnell die Fälle von #B117 ansteigen, die Dunkelziffer dürfte mangels Sequenzierungen bereits sehr hoch sein. Uns fliegt nun doch Weihnachten um die Ohren. Drücke so dolle die Daumen, dass heute die Kehrtwende beschlossen wird. https://t.co/8nPolmS3Fh
Extremer Ausbruch der englischen Variante #B117 in Seniorenheim in Leverkusen.
29 von 115 Bewohnern infiziert, dazu 15 Mitarbeiter.
4 von 6 sequenzierten Proben sind #B117.
Kein Reisezusammenhang, wie bereits in Solingen.
https://t.co/swlmy5Tc0D
7) A UK report that suggests the #B117 variant seems to have a higher relative increase in infection attack rates compared to wild type (common strains) for kids 0-9.
➡️B117 increased attack rates across all age groups, but largest % inc in youngest kids.
https://t.co/MKEmORjIVx
#B117 Zitat
"während des nationalen Lockdowns im November um 200 bis 400 Prozent zugenommen.
Die neue Variante schaffe ein sechs- bis achtmal höheres Wachstum der Fallzahlen pro Monat wie andere"
Kann mir das mal jemand erklären wieso das in Großbritannien der Fall sein soll?
4) As Professor Greenhalgh points out, if schools open; they should definitely reconsider the meager 2 meter rule. It doesn’t work for an airborne aerosol virus. Not only masks, but ventilation— and HEPA Filters key if no ventilation. https://t.co/XlOWrRcTwq
2) Notice how big a drop school closing offer in dropping R below 3.3 baseline. And especially when combined with other things, schools can bring it down below R<1. #COVID19@dgurdasani1 has more children’s data - follow here. https://t.co/PGJRdCLIis
MOST EFFECTIVE INTERVENTIONS: What works best for reducing R(t)?
📌Limiting gatherings <10 people: 42% reduction
📌Closing schools & universities: 38% reduction—which was “remarkably robust“
➡️big paper published in @ScienceMagazine—Legit.
#COVID19 🧵
https://t.co/npJnh68g4Ihttps://t.co/M9Mvjh69Hr
8) other data on kids transmission. This is data mostly based on old common variant, not the new B117. It’s already worrying. (SAGE is UK govt expert group) https://t.co/6KRXvAfV0X
7) I’m gonna simplify key things with the new attack rate data:
—New b117 variant is more contagious (high attack rate)
—kids still lower transmission but not as much as before
—B117’s increase in attack over the old type appears greater in kids 0-9 than increase in adults.
6) How much of a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.
➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline.
➡️6x higher vs old variant. https://t.co/cIzpAinj23
COVID-19 PANDEMIC / SIGNIFICANT MUTATIONS OF THE COVID-19-CAUSING SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS
/ THE SARS-CoV-2 #B117 VARIANT STRAIN
/ DIRE WARNING FROM DENMARK:
(Tweet from January 9th)
"... crush the pandemic NOW or else!" https://t.co/jEerAtD6Yx
COVID-19 PANDEMIC / SIGNIFICANT MUTATIONS OF THE COVID-19-CAUSING SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS
/ THE SARS-CoV-2 #B117 VARIANT STRAIN:
(Tweet from January 9th) https://t.co/SFI3Py9bXs
4) Bottomline, it seems new UK 🇬🇧 B117 variant has not only ~ 33-36% higher attack rate compared to common #SARSCoV2 type, but it is 43.5-47.5% higher for young kids!
➡️While kids lower risk than adults overall, the new B117 virus is potentially relatively worse for young kids.
COVID-19 PANDEMIC / SIGNIFICANT MUTATIONS OF THE COVID-19-CAUSING SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS
/ THE SARS-CoV-2 #B117 VARIANT STRAIN:
(Tweet from January 9th) https://t.co/PPc4uEaemJ
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9!
Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults.
Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids. https://t.co/HSrCzk1apd